Predicting the probability of occurrence of floral malformation in mango (Mangifera indica L) under climate change scenario
Keywords:
weather surface, spatial interpolation, mapping malformation, climate change logistic quadratic modelAbstract
Malformation is a serious threat to mango cultivation in various Countries. The analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on mango malformation disease is essential for developing strategies to control malformation. The prediction of mango malformation occurrence was therefore undertaken by two approaches. In the first method, weather surfaces were generated using spatial interpolation technique (Kriging) for four weather s viz., Tmax, Tmin, relative humidity and wind speed. The zonation was done using the threshold values conducive for Fusarium mangiferae growth and proliferation. The second method was statistical approach, using logistic quadratic model for predicting the probabilities of susceptible mango malformation areas in India. The results revealed that the spatial zonation of areas with mango malformation occurrence is higher for individual weather variable. However, when both temperature and relative humidity were used in combination, the area was considerably reduced. The study was also useful in classifying the area spatially using the threshold value for occurrence and non-occurrence of mango malformation. In case of logit model, the model was well fitted for predicting the probability of mango malformation occurrence. The model predicted high probability of mango malformation occurrence in Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana followed by Gujarat, Punjab and Jharkhand.
Downloads
References
Aguilera A, Teliz Ortiz D, Mora Aguilera G, Sanchez Garcia P, Javier Mercado J. Temporal progress of "Witches' broom" (Fusarium subglutinans and F. oxysporum) disease in mango (Mangifera indica L.) orchards cv. Haden in Michoacan Mexico, Revista Mexicana de Fitopatologia, 2003; 21:01-12.
Anemiya T. Qualitative response models A Survey, Journal of Economic Literature, 1981; 19:1483-1536.
Atinsky G, Sztejnberg EA, Maymon MR, Ochoa Shtienberg D, Vintal H, Freeman S. Interaction of the Mite Aceria mangiferae with Fusarium mangiferae, the Causal Agent of Mango Malformation Disease. Phytopathology, 2009; 99:152-159.
Beaumont LJ, Pitman A, Perkins S, Zimmermann NE, Yoccoz NG, Thuiller W. Impacts of climate change on the world’s most exceptional ecoregions. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences USA, 2011; 108:2306–2311.
Beresford R, McKay A, McKenna C, Dobson S. Modelling weather conditions suitable for spread of Psa. In Psa Review -Momentum Conference October 2011, p12 (abstract).
Bentz BJ, Régnière J, Fettig CJ, Hansen EM, Hayes JL, Hicke JA, et al. Climate change and bark beetles of the Western United States and Canada: direct and indirect effects. BioScience, 2010; 60:602-613.
Broome JC, English JT, Marois JJ, Latorre BA, Aviles JC. Development of an infection model for Botrytis bunch rot of grapes based on wetness duration and temperature. Phytopathlogy, 1995; 85:97-102.
Burdon JJ, Thrall PH, Ericson L. The current and future dynamics of disease in plant communities. Annual Review of Phytopathology, 2006; 44:19-39.
Burdon JJ, Thrall PH. Pathogen evolution across the agro-ecological interface: implications for disease management. Evolutionary Applications, 2008; 1:57-65.
Butterworth MH, Semenov MA, Barnes A, Moran D, West JS, Fitt BDL. North-south divide; contrasting impacts of climate change on crop yields in Scotland and England. J R Soc Interface, 2010; 7:123-130.
Chakrabarti DK. Mango malformation.Springer, NY, USA, 2011, p148.
Dille JA, Milner M, Groeteke JJ, Mortensen DA, Williams MW. How good is your weed map? A comparison of spatial interpolators, Weed Science, 2002; 51:44-55.
Englewood C. Geographic Information Systems-An Introduction from Jeffrey Star and John Estes, Prentice-Hall, 1990, 2-3.
Engler R, Randin CF, Thuiller W, Dullinger S, Zimmermann NE, Araujo MB, et al. 21st century climate change threatens mountain flora unequally across Europe. Global Change Biology, 2011; 17:2330-2341.
Fitt BDL, Fraaije BA, Chandramohan P, Shaw MW. Impacts of changing air composition on severity of arable crop disease epidemics. Plant Pathology, 2011; 60:44-53.
Freeman S, Crespo M, Arrebola E, Cazorla FM, Maymon M. Characterization of Fusarium mangiferae isolates from mango malformation disease in Southern Spain. Eur. J. Plant Pathol, 2014; 139:253-59.
Gamliel-Atinsky E, Freeman S, Sztejnberg A, Maymon M, Ochoa R, Belausov E, Palevsky E. Interaction of Aceria mangiferae with Fusarium mangiferae, the causal agent of mango malformation disease. Phytopathology, 2009; 99:152-59.
Garrett KA, Dendy SP, Frank EE, Rouse MN, Travers SE. Climate change effects on plant disease: genomes to ecosystems. Annu Rev Phytopathol, 2006; 44:489-509.
Ghini R, Hamada E, Bettiol W. Climate change and plant diseases. Scientia Agricola, 2008; 65(spe),98-107.
González-Domínguez E, Caffi T, Ciliberti N, Rossi V. A Mechanistic Model of Botrytis cinerea on Grapevines That Includes Weather, Vine Growth Stage, and the Main Infection Pathways. PLoS ONE, 2015; 10(10):e0140444. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0140444.
Gregory PJ, Johnson SN, Newton AC, Ingram JS. Integrating pests and pathogens into the climate change/food security debate. J Exp Bot, 2009; 60:2827–2838.
Hamada E, Ghini R, Gonçalves RRV. Gonçalves, Efeito da mudança climática sobre problemas fitossanitários de plantas: metodologias de elaboração de mapas. Engenharia Ambienta, 2006, 373-85.
Harrison PA, Butterfield RE, Downing TE. Climate Change and Agriculture in Europe. Assessment of Impacts and Adaptation. Environmental Change Unit, University of Oxford, 1995.
Heyder U, Schaphoff S, Gerten D, Lucht W. Risk of severe climate change impact on the terrestrial biosphere. Environmental Research Letters, 2011; 6:034036.
Hijmans RJ, Cameron SE, Parra JL, Jones PG, Jarvis A, and Others. “Very High Resolution Interpolated Climate Surfaces for Global Land Areas.” International Journal of Climatology, 2005; 25(15):1965-1978.
IPCC. Climate change The Physical Science Basis. Assessment Report 4, Geneva: IPCC. 996, 2007.
Kůdela V. Potential impact of climate change on geographic distribution of plant pathogenic bacteria in Central Europe. Plant Protection Science, 2009; 45:S27-S32.
Landlearn. Impacts of climate change on horticulture, 2012. (http://www.Landlearnnsw.org.au/sustainability/climate-change/agriculture/horticulture/ impacts).
Lima CS, Pfenning LH, Costa SS, Abreu LM, Leslie JF. Fusarium tupiensesp. nov., a member of the Gibberella fujikuroi complex that causes mango malformation in Brazil. Mycologia, 2012; 104:1408-19.
Marasas WFO, Ploetz RC, Wingfield MJ, Wingfield BD, Steenkamp ET. Mango malformation disease and the associated Fusarium species. Phytopathology, 2006; 96:667-72.
Mboup M, Bahri B, Leconte M, De Vallavieille-PopeC, Kaltz O, Enjalbert J. Genetic structure and local adaptation of European wheat yellow rust populations: the role of temperature-specific adaptation. Evol. Appl., 2012; 5:341-352.
Milad M, Schaich H, Bürgi M, Konold W. Climate change and nature conservation in Central European forests: a review of consequences, concepts and challenges. Forest Ecology and Management, 2011; 261:829-843.
Mina U, Sinha P. Effects of climate change on plant pathogens. Environ. News, 2008; 14:6-10.
Nagaraja A, Usha K, Singh Bhupinder, Singh SK, Umamaheswari. Effect of temperature and relative humidity on growth and sporulation of Fusarium mangiferae under in vitro conditions. Indian Journal of Horticulture, 2011; 68:36-38.
Newman Z, Freeman S, Biton I, Sa’ada D, Paz T. Molecular diagnosis of mango malformation disease and phylogeny of Fusarium mangiferae. Phyto Parasitica, 2012; 40:287-97.
Noriega CDH, Téliz D, Mora AG, Rodríquez AJ, Zavaleta ME, Otero CG. Epidemiology of mango malformation in Guerrero, Mexico with traditional and integrated management, Plant Disease, 1999; 83:223-228.
Otero-Colina G, Rodriguez-Alvarado G, Fernandez-Pavia S, Maymon M, Loetz RC, Aoki T. Identification and characterization of a novel etiological agent of mango malformation disease in Mexico, Fusarium mexicanum sp. nov. Phytopathology, 2010; 100:1176-84.
Ploetz RC, Freeman S. Foliar, Floral and Soilborne Diseases. The mango: botany, production and uses, 2009, 231.
Ploetz R, Zheng QI, Vazquez A, Abdel SMA 1192. Current status and impact of mango malformation in Egypt. International Journal of Pest Management, 2002; 48(1194):279-285.
Reddy IVS. Modelling epidemiology of Fusarium mangiferae in relation to mango malformation. Ph.D. Thesis submitted to P G, School, IARI, New Delhi, 2007.
Reddy IVS, Nagaraja A, Sahoo RN, Singh B, Girish J, Usha K. Development of disease prediction model for mango malformation (Fusarium mangiferae) in India In: Golden jubilee conference on challenges and emerging strategies for improving plant productivity at IARI, New Delhi, 2008.
Siebold M, Von Tiedemann A. Potential effects of global warming on oilseed rape pathogens in Northern Germany. Fungal Ecology, 2012; 5:62-72.
Stephen L, Borchert DM, Hall DG. Effect of low temperatures on mortality and oviposition in conjunction with climate mapping to predict spread of the root weevil diaprepes abbreviatus and introduced natural enemies, Environmental Entomology, 2007; 36:73-82.
Teixeira EI, Fischer G, Van Velthuizen H, Walter C, Ewert F. Global hot-spots of heat stress on agricultural crops due to climate change. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, in press, 2012. doi: 10.1016/j.agrformet.2011.09.002.
Usha K, Goswami AM, Sharma HC, Pande PC, Singh B. Scanning electron microscopic studies on floral malformation in mango. Scientia Horticulturae, 1997; 71:127-130.
Wingfield MJ, Slippers B, Wingfield BD. Novel associations between pathogens, insects and tree species threaten world forests. New Zealand Journal of Forestry Science, 2010; 40:95-103.
Youssef SA, Maymon M, Zveibil A, Klein-Gueta D, Sztejnberg A, Shalaby A, et al. Epidemiological aspects of mango malformation disease caused by Fusarium mangiferae and source of infection in seedlings cultivated in orchards in Egypt, Plant Pathology, 2006, 551-7.
Zafar I, Altaf A, Dasti AS. Journal of Research (Science), Bahauddin Zakariya University, Multan, Pakistan, 2006; 17:09-14 I.
Zheng Q, Ploetz RC. Genetic diversity in the mango malformation pathogen and development of a PCR assay. Plant Pathology, 2002; 51:208-16.
